The war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region just took an unexpected turn. Seemingly isolated in mountainous reaches of central Tigray only weeks ago, Tigrayan rebels last week overran regional capital Mekelle and other cities and towns they had left last November when federal troops moved in. They were met by dancing and cheering crowds. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who had promised a short clash in Tigray and declared victory late last year, pulled federal forces back after a run of battlefield defeats. It’s a stunning turnabout in a brutal war.

So, is the fighting over? Sadly, probably not. If Abiy and Tigrayan leaders can somehow reach agreement on a ceasefire and getting urgently needed aid into Tigray, that would calm things down. More likely is that the war enters a new phase, one that carries even graver danger of triggering a wider crisis in the Horn of Africa.

Just a couple of years ago, things looked different for Ethiopia and the region. Abiy came to power in 2018 on the back of mass protests spearheaded by two of the country’s biggest ethnic groups, his own Oromo and the Amhara. He promised more inclusive politics that would turn the page on decades of repression. A revolution in neighbouring Sudan appeared to surmount even steeper odds. Months of dogged demonstrations prompted the Sudanese military to oust Omar al-Bashir, who had held power for almost 30 years. After arresting Bashir, security chiefs tried to stamp out the protests. But reinvigorated demonstrations and concerted foreign pressure, particularly after a massacre of over 100 protesters in Khartoum, forced them to share power with civilians in a transitional government led by former UN official Abdalla Hamdok.